THE THREE POLES OF THE EARTH：CHALLENGES TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN FRAGILE ENVIRONMENT

本书以地球三极可持续发展为目标,系统总结了地球三极地区未来气候、冰冻圈灾害、陆地水与生态、海域环境、三极SDG大数据平台、支持可持续发展的大数据产品等方面的最新研究进展,同时结合当前联合国可持续发展目标体系,系统总结了地球三极对实现全球可持续发展的重要性、目前存在的短板效应与重大挑战,全面回顾了实现极地可持续发展目标的科学行动和最新研究进展,并提出地球三极实现可持续发展的途径和建议.

本书可为我国的地球三极环境变化和可持续发展科研工作者、地球系统科学研究者、相关政府部门管理者和决策者、相关大学教师和研究生等提供有益的参考.同时,也对我国"极地治理"战略决策与部署提供重要的信息支撑和决策支持.

1 Three Poles of the Earth and Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations 1

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Importance of the Three Poles in Ensuring Global Sustainable Development 5

1.2.1 Critical Areas of Climate Action 5

1.2.2 Global Ecosystem Service Functions 7

1.2.3 Impact of the Three Poles on the Realization of SDGs 10

1.3 Research Status of SDGs Related to the Earth’s Three Poles 13

1.3.1 Exploration of SDGs in the Arctic Region 16

1.3.2 Ocean Protection and SDGs of the Antarctic 17

1.3.3 SDGs of the Third Pole (Qingzang Gaoyuan) 19

1.4 Scientific Challenges Encountered in the Research on the SDGs of the Earth’s Three Poles 21

1.5 Objectives and Structure of This Book 22

References 23

2 Future Projection of Climate Change in the Three Poles 27

2.1 Future Projection of Arctic Climate Change 28

2.1.1 Future Projection of Arctic SST and Air Temperature Changes 28

2.1.2 Future Projection of Influence of Atmospheric Circulation on Arctic and Mid-Latitude Weather 30

2.1.3 Future Projection of Change in the Arctic Sea Ice and Its Climate Impact 34

2.1.4 Projection of the Changes in Extreme Temperature in the Arctic 41

2.2 Future Projection of Antarctic Climate 43

2.2.1 Future Projection of Antarctic Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Air Temperature 43

2.2.2 Future Projection of Antarctic Sea Ice Change 46

2.2.3 Projection of the Change in Extreme Temperatures in Antarctica 47

2.3 Projection of Climate Change Over Qingzang Gaoyuan 48

2.3.1 Projection of the Temperature and Sensible Heat Flux Changes Over Qingzang Gaoyuan 48

2.3.2 Projection of Precipitation Change Over Qingzang Gaoyuan 57

2.3.3 Projection of the Change in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation on Qingzang Gaoyuan 59

2.4 Comparison of Future Climate Change in the Three Poles 62

2.4.1 Comparison of Future Projections of the SST， Air Temperature， and Sea Ice in the Three Poles 63

2.4.2 Comparison of Future Projections of Extreme Temperatures in the Three Poles 66

References 68

3 Cryosphere Disasters in the Three Poles and Responses 75

3.1 Analysis of Disaster-Causing Factors 76

3.1.1 Ice Collapse 76

3.1.2 Glacial Surging 76

3.1.3 Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Events (GLOF) 79

3.1.4 Thaw Slumping Events in the Northern Hemisphere 80

3.1.5 Sea Level Rise Caused by the Melting of Ice Sheets and Mountain Glaciers 82

3.2 Impact Analysis 84

3.2.1 The Impact of Ice Collapse 84

3.2.2 Glacier Surging 86

3.2.3 Glacial Lake Outburst Flood and Chain Disasters 87

3.2.4 Thaw Slumping Disaster and Its Engineering Impact 88

3.2.5 Sea Level Rise 91

3.3 Response 92

3.3.1 Polar Regions 92

3.3.2 Qingzang Gaoyuan 98

3.4 Summary 103

References 103

4 Land Water and Ecosystem 107

4.1 Changes in Water Resources in the Three Poles 108

4.1.1 Arctic Region 108

4.1.2 Antarctic Region 109

4.1.3 Qingzang Gaoyuan 110

4.2 Changes in Terrestrial Ecosystems 114

4.2.1 Land Cover 115

4.2.2 Diversity of Plants and Animals 121

4.2.3 Soil Microbial Diversity 124

4.2.4 Microbial Diversity of Snow and Ice 127

4.3 Clean Energy and Carbon Neutrality 130

4.3.1 Third Pole Solar and Wind Energy Potential to Boost China’s Double-Carbon Target 132

4.3.2 Effects of Permafrost Change on Carbon Cycle Under the Climate Warming 137

4.4 Summary 139

References 141

5 Marine Environment 147

5.1 Environmental Conditions of the Arctic Ocean 148

5.1.1 Main Environmental Factors of the Arctic Ocean 148

5.1.2 Biogeochemical Cycle and Nutrient Elements 150

5.1.3 Biological Response to Climate Change 153

5.1.4 Impact of Human Activities 164

5.2 Marine Environment in the Southern Ocean 167

5.2.1 Temperature， Salinity， and Water Mass Changes in the Southern Ocean 167

5.2.2 Nutrients， Chlorophyll， and Other Biogenic Elements in the Southern Ocean 171

5.2.3 Biology and Ecology of the Southern Ocean 177

References 188

6 Big Data Platform for Three Poles 195

6.1 Construction of the Big Data Platform for Three Poles 196

6.1.1 Overall Architecture 196

6.1.2 Database 198

6.1.3 Method Library 200

6.1.4 Model Base 200

6.2 Data Integration and Open Sharing of Three-Pole SDGs 203

6.2.1 Data Sharing Concept and Mechanism of Three-Pole SDGs 203

6.2.2 Three-Pole SDG Data Resources 204

6.2.3 Three-Pole SDG Data Sharing 209

6.3 SDG Information Service and Decision Support for Three Poles 220

6.3.1 SDG Data Visualization Service for Three Poles 220

6.3.2 Arctic Sea Ice Prediction 224

6.3.3 Intelligent Route Planning for Ships Sailing Through Arctic Ice Zones 229

6.4 Summary 232

References 234

7 Big Data Products for Supporting Sustainable Development 237

7.1 Introduction 237

7.2 Cryosphere Big Data Products 238

7.2.1 Glaciers and Ice Sheet Products 238

7.2.2 Snow and Permafrost Products 244

7.2.3 Sea Ice， River and Lake Ice 253