基于时间依赖的地震预测方法研究

本书针对地震前地壳变形观测中的问题，介绍了地壳变形的观测原理及其主要影响因素，并首次提出了深部流体对地壳变形影响的理论框架。通过系统分析大震前形变异常的时空分布特点，探明了不同时间尺度下变形加速与地震断层、震级及发生时间之间的关系，并发展了基于时间依赖的地震预测方法。这些研究对于揭示地壳变形观测的物理意义、多方位理解地震孕育发生过程，以及应用地壳形变测量技术开展地震短期和短临预测研究，具有重要的参考价值。

第1 章 地壳运动与变形·····································································.1
1.1 地壳运动··············································································.1
1.2 地壳变形··············································································.3
1.3 地壳变形影响因素··································································.5
参考文献····················································································.8
第2 章 地壳变形的观测·····································································10
2.1 有限尺度岩体变形··································································10
2.2 自然条件下的地壳变形····························································15
2.3 地形变仪器观测原理·······························································16
2.3.1 地倾斜观测·································································16
2.3.2 地应变观测·································································24
2.3.3 重力观测····································································27
2.3.4 断层形变观测······························································30
2.4 地应变观测的主要影响因素······················································31
2.4.1 场地效应及场地―仪器耦合作用······································31
2.4.2 仪器类型的影响···························································45
2.4.3 不同周期信号响应的差异···············································53
2.4.4 载荷影响与热影响························································62
参考文献····················································································66
第3 章 地震孕育不同阶段的地壳变形特征·············································68
3.1 震前变形··············································································68
3.1.1 地震外围区变形特征·····················································68
3.1.2 震中区震前变形特征·····················································70
3.2 震间变形··············································································72
3.3 同震变形··············································································74
3.3.1 GNSS 同震位移场·························································74
3.3.2 同震应变场·································································76
3.3.3 同震倾斜场·································································78
3.3.4 同震形变波特征···························································78
3.4 震后变形··············································································80
3.5 本章小结··············································································82
参考文献····················································································83
第4 章 地形变前兆问题特殊性····························································85
4.1 地形变前兆···········································································85
4.2 地震孕育过程模式与形变前兆···················································87
4.2.1 有限边界条件下的地震孕育及应力应变过程·······················87
4.2.2 （半）无限空间下的地震孕育动力学过程···························88
4.3 强震前的形变异常特征····························································93
4.3.1 震前近震中区变形························································93
4.3.2 强震前远场区域的地形变特征······································.103
4.4 最小形变前兆距离·······························································.105
4.5 震前地壳变形不动点问题······················································.106
4.6 形变前兆问题的特殊性·························································.108
参考文献·················································································.109
第5 章 地应力波···········································································.113
5.1 地壳内不同圈层的相互作用···················································.113
5.2 板块边缘驱动力的远程传播模型·············································.116
5.3 地壳薄板弯曲变形及应力传递模型··········································.117
5.4 地壳深部物质流动对地震和形变的影响····································.119
5.4.1 水波――小振幅波·····················································.120
5.4.2 水波――长波···························································.124
5.4.3 地壳深部物质流动对地震与形变迁移的影响····················.126
5.5 地应力波观测·····································································.127
参考文献·················································································.131
第6 章 地应力波前兆与地震关系的建立·············································.133
6.1 地应力波前兆特征·······························································.133
6.1.1 地应力波频段···························································.133
6.1.2 地应力波前兆类型·····················································.134
6.1.3 地应力波传播速度·····················································.135
6.2 地应力波前兆识别·······························································.135
6.2.1 强震引起的震后变形··················································.135
6.2.2 形变年变化······························································.136
6.2.3 地应力波前兆异常的识别············································.137
6.2.4 地应力波前兆特征――多普勒效应································.137
6.3 地应力波前兆与地震的关系···················································.138
6.3.1 前兆面临的“最后一分钟”问题···································.138
6.3.2 前兆异常与地震的相关性判别······································.139
6.3.3 持续时间为15～180 天的加速变化异常与相关地震···········.140
6.3.4 持续时间为1～4 天的加速变化异常与相关地震···············.144
6.3.5 持续时间为1～3 年的形变趋势与大震成组活动···············.149
6.4 地应力波前兆与地震相关性的判别方法····································.154
6.4.1 前兆分布的广泛性·····················································.154
6.4.2 前兆与地震相关性的判别方法······································.154
6.4.3 2008 年汶川Ms 8.0 地震发生前的形变异常与地震的
相关性讨论······························································.155
6.4.4 远场形变前兆的动力学意义·········································.156
参考文献··················································································.158
第7 章 应变能与地震能的平衡与地震预测问题····································.160
7.1 应变能与地震能平衡问题······················································.160
7.1.1 应变能与地震能························································.160
7.1.2 块体运动速率与地震能释放·········································.164
7.1.3 断层滑动速率与地震活动的关系···································.166
7.2 应变能与地震能的转化·························································.167
7.3 2008 年汶川Ms 8.0 地震前后的应变积累与释放平衡···················.170
7.3.1 2008 年汶川Ms 8.0 地震前后的地震活动与GNSS 观测······.170
7.3.2 Benioff 应变·····························································.171
7.3.3 GNSS 站间基线·························································.172
7.3.4 泸州―广州基线缩短与Benioff 蠕变亏损的相关性分析······.174
7.4 形变与地震的协同性····························································.175
7.5 地震定量预测技术思路·························································.176
参考文献·················································································.178
第8 章 基于时间依赖的地震定量预测方法··········································.181
8.1 中长期地震预测方法····························································.181
8.1.1 成组大震优势发生时间···············································.181
8.1.2 成组大震发生地点（断层） ·········································.184
8.2 地震短期预测方法·······························································.184
8.2.1 地震发生等待时间预测···············································.184
8.2.2 地震地点预测方法·····················································.185
8.2.3 地震强度预测方法·····················································.204
8.2.4 地震发生等待时间与震中距离的关系·····························.207
8.3 地震短临预测方法·······························································.208
8.4 应用与检验········································································.208
参考文献·················································································.210